welcome back to racks in boca raton. we asked you at the top of the show what you're doing up at this hour. john tower has this. >> tyler, i live in the buildings behind racks, and i still can't get in. how about some vip seating, go vandy. >> it usually gets you in, but you can't get into this joint. look at the size of this crowd. they're lined up around the block. tomorrow is your day. >> clearly i went to the wrong racks. now i need to get all the glitter off my clothes before i go to work. >> that is a problem we've been having, a common theme. apparently there might be another racks here in south

florida. "morning joe" starts right now. i think it's going to be an important debate. i don't think any one event is decisive, but this is an important issue. even though being strong at home and rebuilding our economy is the number one issue, people want to know that they have a strong, steady hand in the oval office, and they don't want someone who's reckless and who's been consistently wrong on foreign policy issues, as governor romney has. >> the president had created this false image of mitt romney in the minds of some voters that was completely knocked down in that first debate. and i think now what's becoming apparent in these debates is that the president has no plan for the next four years. he's failed to outline any sort of ideas how he'll govern the country in his words forward over the next four years. and that's why these debates have mattered more than ever. tomorrow is his last chance to tell us what he's going to do over the next four years. >> and good morning.

it is monday, october 22nd. and folks here in boca have been up since 2:00 in the morning. there are 15 days to go until election day, and we're live from racks downtown eatery, where everyone is here in boca raton, florida, just miles away from lynn university where the final presidential debate will take place tonight. welcome, everyone. it's good to have you here. we have a great crowd here. >> it's unbelievable. >> can you believe this? >> great crowd in here. they're all packed out there. >> they're wide awake. >> mika came here early on, and she was handing out romney flyers. >> no, i wasn't. >> i was kind of surprised by that. >> no, i wasn't. >> the elephant hat with the straws to drink your vodka. >> that is not true. >> that didn't happen? >> no. >> what's fascinating, though, the people outside and inside, i think we have more democrats inside than outside. outside, of course, and isn't this the way it always is? we republicans are stuck outside. >> are you all republicans out

there? >> there's some republicans outside. it's packed. it's a great crowd. and very exciting. >> yes. and with us on set along with joe and me and willie -- willie's coming over. he was hiding in the crowd. msnbc and "time eye eye seni" s mark halperin, john heilemann, michael steele, and the president of the council on foreign relations, richard haass. author of, joe, the forthcoming book, "foreign policy begins at home: the case for appoiputting america's house in order." that's a great touchstone for the conversation today. i think what we have going on here at home in terms of the economy affects the foreign policy. >> i think so. what does he think he is, jon meacham with his forthcoming book? he's had a forthcoming book since jefferson, like, purchased

the louisiana purchase. >> i know. >> pulitzer prize. >> it's coming, though. so, guys, let's talk about -- what do we have? >> this is what david axelrod called romney's international trip. >> what's that? >> on "meet the press" yesterday. a dukes of hazzard tour of international destinations. that was good. thank you for that. perfect. >> let's talk about the latest poll that they were talking about yesterday on "meet the press." nbc news/"wall street journal" poll, dead even. >> 47-47. >> i think that fits the feel of everybody that i've talked to. you know, you guys hear it all the time. i hear it all the time. the question, who's going to win? who's going to win? and i've been saying for a couple weeks, probably obama by a few points now. i have absolutely no idea. and a strange thing has happened, mika. you actually have, instead of the romney people acting a little nervous and crazy, which they have, we have for a year, you now have democrats that are

starting to move into this panic phase. you know, we could lose this thing. i think for the first time, they're getting really nervous. >> i have a lot of people -- we've seen it together -- coming up to us going, what's going to happen? what's going to happen? it is a real nail-biter at this point. >> it is a toss-up. >> i think that's fair to say. i'm not sure where these polls will end up in the long run in terms of being correct, but you know what? they are at least a touchstone for the conversation. >> this race right now could not be closer, john. >> you think about the trend line just in this poll, just to stick with the consistency, the nbc/"wall street journal" poll, people say it's the gold standard for polling. i don't disagree. in early september, obama coming out of the convention, a five-point lead with likely voters in this poll. after the first debate at the end of september or maybe just before the first debate, it had shrunken to three points. now a couple weeks later, it's down to dead even. if you're the romney campaign, you see that trajectory, that's a steady march of progress.

>> feeling good. >> as chuck todd pointed out yesterday on "meet the press," 47% is a great number for the challenger. 47% is not great for the incumbent. you're much happier to be romney at 47 than you are obama at 47. >> it's been running for four or five years. people know him. he's the most famous guy in the world. and he's sitting at 47% following up on john's point. there was a time before 2004 when george w. bush won where you said if you're an incumbent, you're under 50% and you're close to the election, you're in trouble. if i were president obama's team, i'd feel a lot better at 48%, 49% than 46%, 47%. he's not closing the deal. >> people say they want to see changes and a second-term agenda from him, and he's not talking about change. he's saying give me four more years to finish what i've started. if you're chicago, what gives

you confidence, you still think you've got the better candidate to close over the last two weeks. >> while you keep talking, alex, let's put up that part of the poll where i thought this was one of the most fascinating questions, even if the president's re-elected, do you want him to make dramatic changes in the second term? the numbers are up what, in the 60s? see if we can get that up. >> that is to me the biggest poll. people can obsess over the horse race number. but there's other things, romney's likability, whether he understands the middle class. the number in there that says they want a changed obama agenda, it's higher than what people wanted for president bush at this point in 2004. and i say again, the president is not offering people that. he's saying i want major changes. 62%. the president, i think, still needs to address that because he's not promising major changes. he said i think in the last debate, give me four more years to finish what i've started. people don't want him to finish.

they want him to change the strategy. >> we've been saying for six months, mitt romney, if he wants to beat the president, is going to have to lay out a specific agenda. actually, as we get closer to the election, you look at this latest poll, it appears that he's gotten away with not laying out a specific, consistent agenda moving forward because the president hasn't as well. and this 62% number is fascinating. >> look, the president has a record to run on. have they done a good job selling it? i'm not so sure, and they need to start selling fast. before we get to some of the other polls, especially pertaining to women, richard haass, i think he has a chance to make a difference tonight in the debate. i think there's so many people tuned in, wondering what's going to happen with this election that there may be another opportunity to come off really strong. >> might it, though, have less to do with the actual substance of the foreign policy? >> i agree. >> the polls show there's not a hell of a lot of interest in that. it might be more temperament and

command of the facts and the idea -- because people are beginning to realize you're not going to vote not just for the economic issues, you're going to vote for commander in chief. >> it comes down to leadership, doesn't it? nobody's going to go into the voting booth saying, i'm voting against the president because of what happened in benghazi, but they might say, you know what he doesn't seem like a strong leader. yeah, maybe he killed osama bin laden, but what's going on? it's almost like it neutralizes it. i'm not saying it does. i'm just saying for people at home that say foreign policy doesn't matter, it may not matter specifically, but on the margins as far as leadership goes, it makes all the difference in the world. >> i think you're right. i think it's a template, but there's a slightly different one. for the president, it's the question of judgment. i think for romney, it's the question of judgment because he's the unknown in this area. i think that's what each of them has to project. >> there are several things, michael steele, that president obama has done to, i think, actually strengthen his policies here at home in terms of the

middle class when it comes to foreign policy because obviously foreign policy is not just benghazi, and it's not just iraq. >> is this a campaign speech, by the way? >> it's exports. he's signed three trade deals in this administration, something mitt romney completely lied about and said did not happen. >> you can tell it's the final two days of the campaign. >> and that's now helping companies in this country get a lot more business. >> do we have matching video here? >> increased job numbers. we don't have matching video. we just have information and facts to go on. >> you make a great point. >> thank you, michael. >> but like richard said, no one gives a damn. at the end of the day, it goes to the bigger question, the president has not laid out what the next four years will look like, whether you're talking foreign policy, whether you're talking the economic agenda. and that 62% is probably the nail that could close his coffin electorally if he does not tonight start answering that question. >> michael, you ran the republican party. you've been in politics your whole life. when people come up to you and ask who's going to win, are you

along with the rest saying, i just don't know. >> yeah. >> this is a lot like 2004. >> it's a lot like 2004. on paper, romney still has a lot of the metrics -- i mean obama has a lot of the metrics working for him. how does romney carve out the one in ohio, how does he navigate through virginia? on paper, that's the challenge he has. but when you see these polls and what's beneath the poll that's not necessarily being reflected, the attitude of the american people about how the election has played out, i think there's a big question mark. >> guys, what's behind these polls? because the first debate, obviously, a huge win for mitt romney. i think that still resonates with voters. i saw the second debate, and maybe republicans don't like me saying this. i thought mitt romney had it wrong, tonally as wrong as you could have it the first 20, 30 minutes. i thought he messed up the benghazi question, i'm not alone, krauthammer, laura inc.

h ingram, others thought the same thing. the further i get away from it, i saw the focus groups on msnbc, it's almost like voters -- they weren't turned off by romney, and i'm wondering whether they're so hungry for a strong leader that they even liked him being intemperate by debate standards. >> i think it's pretty simple. this doesn't mean romney's going to win, but we said four months, as did the president's advisers, they can't win on the president's record. they must destroy and eliminate as a viable alternative the other guy. romney in the two debates, even in the second one, looked presentable, acceptable enough that he's in a position to win simply by being acceptable. >> john, do you agree with that? >> i think that's fair, yeah. i think there's mixed -- there's mixed evidence about what people thought about the debate in terms of governor romney. i know jeff guerin who does polling for priorities usa action, went and did a bunch of focus groups in ohio the day

after. and particularly among blue-collar white women who are crucial in ohio and mird western states and a lot of them were turned off by governor romney and his demeanor but not probably enough to disqualify him from consideration of voting. they haven't changed their minds. the president still -- to the questions of what his advantages are -- he still continues to overperform his national number in a lot of the key swing states. and you know, you see him where he's going after this debate, he's going around to places like nevada and iowa and wisconsin, places that governor romney, one of which governor romney's going to have pick up even if he wins ohio. so you see the president now trying to work on the firewall. you know, how do you stop romney, even if he's won ohio, from picking up one of those additional states that's going to need to get him over the top, colorado. >> let's talk about the map because you follow the map very closely, as closely as anybody. what's it looking like to you after this weekend, going down the homestretch? because the electoral map, we've

always said, is a big advantage for the president. that advantage you said about a week or two ago has been sort of marginalized. where do we stand this morning? >> he needs the mccain states plus indiana, florida, north carolina, virginia, ohio and one more. >> one more. >> and as -- one more of the five. as of today, if you talk to the most optimistic people on the republican side who are looking at a lot of polling data, they think they'll win substantially more than that. they think they may even win some states we're not talking about, but they don't need that. all they need, mccain states plus indiana, florida, virginia, north carolina, ohio. one more. >> i don't want to get too far in the weeds. i really do believe now he's going to win florida. unless something really happens. he's going to win florida, north carolina, virginia. >> they're happy outside. >> i think he's going to win colorado possibly going away. obama's never been -- let me ask you about one other state other than ohio. nevada. the president is maintaining a stubborn lead there.

i mean, one of the worst economies in the america. what's going on? >> it may be -- >> nevada could be the difference. >> it may be romney's worst of the nine battleground states. >> aren't there a lot of mormans there? >> there are, but there's hispanics, harry reid's machine on the ground, there's labor. >> unions. >> and it's one of the few states where the hispanic vote is hugely -- huge population of hispanic voters there. the president has 75%-25% gap. >> this is what i don't get. >> registration. >> the republican senate candidate seems to be well ahead. i'm surprised -- >> not well ahead. zb >> -- that mitt romney, even if he wins ohio, it could cost him the election. >> it could. >> if it's really close. >> fu look at electoral college calculations, he's more likely to win colorado than nevada. it all pivots on ohio. you can talk about new hampshire, wisconsin, maybe even pennsylvania or michigan, maybe,

but it doesn't really matter. if he wins ohio, by virtue of winning ohio, he will win at least one of the other five. >> let's take a look at some of the other polls among women voters. take a look at this. the president's lead is shrinking. now down to eight points. it's the smallest lead president obama has had with women voters all year. among men, mitt romney holds about a ten-point advantage. when asked which candidate is better prepared to create jobs and improve the economy, the republican candidate has a four-point edge. last month he had a one-point lead. however, when asked what the nation's economy will do over the next 12 months, only 9% believe it will get worse. that's the lowest number the poll has reported in decades. and when it comes to the direction of the country, 41% say the country is on the right track. the highest number this poll has recorded in three years. so there are a lot of different messages happening here in these polls for sure. >> there really are. michael steele, conflicting evidence? >> yeah.

on who would benefit. >> not good for the president. other numbers look to be very good for the president. right track/wrong track is in the right direction for the president. >> i think what it reflects is that people are beginning to feel better about the economy and the direction it's going. they're not necessarily going to attribute that to the president at this point because the president has not coherently laid out what the next four years will look like. and if he tags this growth and the feeling that people have for what he's going to do, then you'll begin to see that turn around. mitt has basically filled in that gap. he's been presidential. he's laid out an economic agenda, whether you agree or disagree with it. he knows where he wants to go. obama, from the first debate to right now, has been wandering all over the map. and these numbers reflect people sitting there going -- >> he needs to communicate, michael, that he's been building up the middle class. he's talking about a fair shot, talking about taxes, but what about the policies that he's put in place that have actually helped the numbers including, for example, manufacturing which added, in terms of jobs performance, is at its highest

level in 15 years. what has he done to contribute to that? the car industry, exports, other things, education. >> the president's not framing the argument that way. >> i agree. >> again, he's got the metrics on paper. >> i agree. >> he's got the numbers to back up his agenda. it's just that he's not talking about his agenda. >> that's one part of it. >> 62% want major changes. 18% want some minor changes. if things are going so well -- >> they're not going so well, but they're moving in the right direction. >> why do so many people want change? >> 62%. >> they want major change. >> i have an interesting must-read coming up about almost a misperception about what milt romn mitt romney brings to the table. they've done a good job selling this business angle. but people are definitely buying romney. >> it's not just that, though. you're talking about the past, and that's fine. but what voters want to know right now for mitt romney and

barack obama is the future. what happens in the next four years? because lets me tell you something. do not tell a worki ingworking- woman in sandusky, ohio, that things are great because of this, because of that. >> i'm not. >> no, i'm telling you, though, again, you're asking, why hasn't it sold? don't tell them what you've done for them in the past four years. tell the working-class woman in sandusky, ohio, how the next four years are going to be easier for herself. she's a single mom. she's got a girl in 11th grade. she wants her to go to a good college. that's what barack obama needs to sell to the american people, and he hasn't done it yet. >> i don't think the numbers -- >> nor has romney. >> i don't think the number's at all inexplicable. you think where the country's been economically in the past four years. it's been horrible. and for people who now say the country is moving in the right direction, as michael said, you can see there's some signs of economic progress. they feel better and more optimistic than the last four years, but they still recognize that the economy has gone

through this big fundamental structural change. they might think the country's moving slowly in the right direction, but they still think, wow, we still need to do some really big things to make it the way we really want it to be for our kids and grandkids. those things aren't inconsistent at all. >> i've got a prediction. i think this is going to be like 1992. regardless of who wins, i think we're going to see economic growth. george bush had the economic growth in the third quarter of '92 instead of the fourth quarter, he would have beaten bill clinton. >> there will be growth in spring. >> but you know, you just get the feeling this economy's waking up, and regardless of who wins, i think we're going to see a bump like we saw in the fourth quarter of '92. >> if we deal, again, this goes to one of mark's favorite hobby horses, all of that absolutely makes sense in cyclical terms, but we still have this fiscal cliff to deal with. if we deal with that, we could have great growth. if we fail at that test, we

could be back in recession again in the spring so who knows? >> before we go to break, one other big story that's been breaking over the weekend, iran will certainly be a major topic tonight. "the new york times," over the weekend, reported that the united states and tehran have agreed in principle to engage in one-on-one negotiations over iran's nuclear program. the article which cites anonymous sources within the obama administration says the talks would take place after the presidential election. the white house says the report is not true. true or not, richard haass, you already see folks on the romney side trying to exploit this as a bad thing. is it a sign of bad things to come or perhaps a sign that the sanctions are working? >> i think it's exactly right. it's a sign the sanctions are finally kicking in. the iranian currency fell by something like 40% over the last two weeks. >> yep. >> they're feeling the pain. this is a good thing. i think the united states should test the iranians. we should offer a comprehensive offer. and we'll find out.

>> so this is a good thing. >> i think it's a good thing. >> one on one. >> it's clarifying. it either will get a deal that we can live with, which is a good thing because no one should be anxious to go to war given all the uncertainties. >> did the israelis have a problem with this? >> their thing will depend on the details. what is it we would demand under romney? can you get a deal that's enough for the iranians and not too much for ourselves and the israelis. >> we're going to break so it's going to be a rapid fire here. how much is the iranian economy hurting because of sanctions? >> tremendously. >> crippling. >> and they care about regime preservation more than they care about nuclear weapons. so this gives us an opening. >> very good. >> we'll be talking more about richard about the debate tonight. >> look at this crowd. thank you for coming out here. thank you so much. can you believe this? >> she wants to tell you something. go ahead. >> so how many of you guys think the show should be called "morning mika"? >> oh, god.

thank you so much. >> mika, i think i'm outvoted here. "morning mika" it is. >> outside they seem more, the republicans. okay. >> they like you more than me. i don't know. >> i don't know. >> it's like my mother. >> all right. thank you. coming up live from boca raton, deputy campaign manager -- >> you're from boca? >> -- for president. >> i'm from boca. >> stephanie cutter will be here, senior foreign policy adviser for the romney campaign, dan senor, "washington post" columnist yeugene robinson. dan's in trouble. >> he's going to come on the show and say something that's going to lose the election for mitt romney. it might cause a hurricane. >> hurricane dan. he's always good to us. nbc news political director chuck todd will join us. and up next, mike allen with the top stories in the "politico playbook." but first, do we go back to bill in new york? i didn't know he still worked for us. >> oh, my gosh. >> hey, bill. tell us the weather. >> mika, we've coordinated our

outfits today, too. we like nice together. see? well done. >> just do the weather. just do the weather. >> it's a big question, i wonder why i never travel with you guys. is it you or is it me? as far as the forecast goes today, interesting developments this week. today we're starting nice and quiet. it's warm, it's dry most of the country. the exception being the west coast. a lot of rain moving through california with some snow at the high elevations. but this is beautiful fall weather in new england. the leaves are nearly at their peak. it's just gorgeous out there. you had a very nice weekend. that should continue through much of the week. middle of the country is very warm. but especially in the northern plains to the midwest, we could add showers and thunderstorms today and even a couple days this week around chicago, detroit, kansas city and st. louis. but the warmth is the big thing. it ends as we head towards friday. cold air plunges down from canada. now, at the same time, we have something developing in the tropics. of course, people in florida know even in october you can get hit by these storms. this should become tropical storm sandy this week heading

over cuba somewhere near the bahamas as we go throughout next weekend. and some of our computers are hinting it could scoot up towards the mid-atlantic and new england this time next week. so we are going to need to watch this closely. of course, the hurricane season still continues even as the weather gets colder. you're watching "morning joe." what a crowd we have down at racks in boca. stay tuned for more analysis down there from florida. we're brewed by starbucks. welcome aboard! [ chuckles ] ♪ [ honk! ] ♪ [ honk! ] ♪ [ honk! ] [ male announcer ] now you'll know when to stop. [ honk! ] the all-new nissan altima with easy fill tire alert. [ honk! ] it's our most innovative altima ever.

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it is 28 past the hour. we're live in boca at racks. and look at this crowd. i'm told they started to show up here at 2:30 in the morning, joe. 2:30. >> it is packed! they love "morning mika." they love "morning mika."

>> you're so nice. i don't think that's what's going on. let's take a look now at the "morning papers." "usa today," former democratic presidential candidate george mcgovern has died at the age of 90. he was known as a champion for the civil rights movement and against the vietnam war. the senator from south dakota and later during his run as the democratic nominee for president in 1972. but mcgovern lost badly, earning just 17 electoral votes. mcgovern was moved to hospice in recent days before passing away on sunday. >> john heilemann, george mcgovern, a wonderful man. everybody that knew him loved him. a war hero. a great american. public service his entire life. >> yes. >> and also, he created the modern democratic party. he gave us gary hart, he gave us bill clinton. he gave us the party of barack obama. >> you think about george mcgovern in 1972, you know, as

the candidate of abortion, amnesty and acid, right? that was the caricature. he was the least comfortable -- you couldn't imagine someone less comfortable with that image. he was a principled anti-war candidate for sure. you know, he lost a catastrophic race against nixon, was destroyed in that race. and yet 1972 was the last democratic convention in miami, it was a smoke-filled room convention. all the post-watergate reforms that changed the primary system, changed the party grew out of that. you mentioned gary hart, huge national player in the mccoveramcgovern campaign. so many of the reformed democrats who would create the new democratic party cut their teeth with mcgovern. and you know, mcgovern never lost the taste for it. the most amazing thing that people forget, he ran again in 1984. >> yep. >> he thought about running again in 1992. >> you make a point. >> he wanted to help the country. he still had that ambition.

i met him in 1984. you know, you couldn't imagine a neisser, more decent, more honorable public servant than george mcgovern. >> mark halperin, that's what we hear time and time again, what we've always heard about george mcgovern, despite the caricature in the 1972 campaign, despite the fact that he was far more progressive than a lot of americans in '72 and beyond, that he was a decent, principled, good man. he was an american hero, and he was a public servant of the first order. >> there's so much you can say about the guy. let me tick off four things. one is a war hero. two is from south dakota. one of the great things about this country, you can come from a small rural state and still be a big national player. three, huge respect in a bipartisan way. senator dole -- worked with dole on a number of things, someone who from a bygone era who could be beloved by both parties. he worked throughout his life, not just as a young man. john talked about him running, up until his death, he was working to try to make the country a better place.

just an incredible man. >> we all owe him a great debt of gratitude. >> absolutely. we now go to chief white house correspondent for politico with the "playbook." this morning you guys are looking at two very different strategies of how the candidates plan to win on november 6th, mike. >> well, happy debate day, mika. and wow! what a fantastic crowd there. the two strategies are momentum versus the map. romney has big mo. he's on offense. obama has the map. he's on defense. this piece by glen thresh and jonathan martin points out that the big obama hope is that this is like the spring of '08 in their race against hillary clinton. she had late in the race momentum, but she was stopped cold by electoral map and a superior obama organization. that's the same thing they hope to do now.

win ohio at any cost, add wisconsin and nevada, you've won. that's their game. the romney game is more offense. he's been able to move to a more positive message. he's able to look at more states. and it's funny, the romney folks tell us that they've been slow to catch on to just how clearly the surge is moving their way. they didn't believe the polls for so long because it's only been in the last 24 hours. and as you guys did at the top of the show, really connecting the dots to show how clearly all the external signs are moving in romney's direction. >> it's amazing. >> tonight, though, mike, politico also writes that this could be mitt romney's toughest debate. of course, that lowers the expectations for mitt romney. he didn't handle the libya question last time, and you wonder whether he'll be ready tonight. this should be his toughest debate because foreign policy has been a trap for the romney

campaign time and time again this campaign cycle. >> no, that's right, joe. and foreign policy debate is going to be hard for any challenger. the commander in chief is always going to do better in a foreign policy debate. it doesn't matter what the new guy says about what his ideas are, what his attacks are. the commander in chief can always say, well, it looks a little different from the oval office. so tonight we'll be looking at what the two candidates say on ir iran. and we're thinking the president is going to say "the new york times" is not right, that there's a specific procedure. the romney camp will say the only other alternative would be war. >> richard haass, is it so difficult for a challenger to go after a commander in chief. i don't care how much the commander in chief has fumbled things. i remember back 1980, jimmy

carter in the middle of the iranian hostage crisis, ted kennedy jumps in the race, everybody assumes kennedy's going to win that race. he criticizes the president on iran. and he takes a heavy hit in the democratic party because of it. you're just in a difficult position when you're debating foreign policy with the commander in chief. >> you're absolutely right. so one thing mitt romney could do is connect foreign policy and national security to the economy. in the long run, the united states will not have the resources it needs. we won't be able to set the example. we will not be able to lead in the world unless we restore the fundamentals of american power. deal with the deficit, economic growth, get education right in this country, get infrastructure right. what mitt romney needs to do is draw the connection between national security and economic success. and it seems to me that's the way he can outflank the president rather than having a national security debate. >> mike allen, thank you so much. >> thank you, mike. >> have fun in florida. >> talk to you tomorrow. thanks. coming up, game six of the

nlcs. can san francisco fend off elimination for the second time to force a game seven against the cardinals? >> what a great series. >> oh, my god, mike barnicle is here. >> i love it, barnicle! >> barnicle's in boca? >> barnicle's in boca! oh, yeah! >> i bet you did. very disturbing. [ male announcer ] when it comes to the financial obstacles military families face, we understand. at usaa, we know military life is different. we've been there. that's why every bit of financial advice we offer is geared specifically to current and former military members and their families. [ laughs ] dad! dad! [ applause ] ♪ [ male announcer ] life brings obstacles.

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welcome back to "morning joe." >> they get up early in boca. >> they get up very early in boca. >> early. >> started streaming in about 2:30 this morning. >> how is that? >> they are absolutely packed outside. standing room only outside. inside, of course, jammed here. and of course, they all came for one reason, to meet mike barnicle. >> absolutely. >> so mike, we want to go to sports in a second. but you talked about an anniversary today. 50th anniversary of an event. there's some parallels with what's going on today. >> yeah, amazing. 50 years ago this evening, president john f. kennedy addressed the nation with regard to the cuban missile crisis, announced that the russians had placed missiles in cuba. 90 miles off the coast of florida.

>> wow! >> 50 years ago tonight. >> we had caroline kennedy on friday. the tapes. >> fantastic. fascinating. >> between jfk and ike. they're going to, uh, use nuclear missiles. and ike's, like, i don't think so. it was like they were talking about a golf game. they're some of the most remarkable tapes. >> absolutely fascinating. 37 years ago tonight, carlton fisk hit the home one in game six of the 1976 world series. >> that's a big anniversary for me. i had been following, of course, the two great rookies that season. and fred lynn and jim rice. and tonight was the night that would seal the deal. i was tortured for the rest ofmy life as a red sox fan. speaking of sports, 37 years ago tonight. it's unbelievable, game six, one of the great games in major league history. we've got a great game going -- we've got a great series going,

though, between the cardinals and san francisco. >> last night when all of these people were getting in their cars to come over here for this morning's show leaving in the middle of the night, ryan vogelsong who has had a checkered career as a professional baseball player played in japan for two years, san francisco giants, struck out nine. an incredible job. he's having an incredible series. giants win, 6-1. >> wow! >> that's marco substitute row, former member of the red sox, thank you very much, driving in two. >> scutaro's looking good, isn't? i >> yeah. perhaps the mvp of the series if the giants win. so there's vogelsong. strikes out nine. giants win, 6-1. the series is now tied. tonight in san francisco. matt cain, perfect game. matt cain on the mound for the giants. >> we're going to game seven, mike, this is a great series. we also had a -- a lot of great games yesterday. just look at the new york teams. the redskins and the giants. that was a heck of a battle. >> redskins/giants. fourth quarter, rg3, robert

griffin iii, might be the most exciting player in football. look at him. watch this run. watch him avoid tackles, comes back -- >> that's amazing. >> throw it! throw it! >> oh, my god! >> less than two minutes left in this game. >> now, that's scrappy. >> watch the slow mo. >> that's beautiful. that's actually brilliant. >> and then the next play, he drops back, boom. puts it right in the receiver's arms. touchdown. >> oh, my gosh! >> redskins are going to win, obviously, there's a minute and a half left. >> right. >> redskins have this game in the bag. no. >> no? >> eli manning. >> eli's coming. >> watch this. victor cruz who's been on our show. >> oh, no! >> there he goes. >> well, actually, if you were in new york, you'd say oh, yes. >> oh, my gosh. >> so the question is -- >> look at him. what's he doing? >> -- mike barnicle, how do three defensive backs allow a guy to get past them? >> oh, my. >> i have no idea how that

happened. >> not only that, it's not exactly a surprise that that's what they were going to do for a play. >> i remember him. >> so let's talk really quickly. we've got to go to break. the other new york team, the new york jets. i tell you what, they're coming back. they're looking good. but mark sanchez, bad timing. >> you know, he's a great guy. we've had him on the program. let's put it this way. he is not tom brady. >> no, he is not. >> they put up a good battle in foxboro, jets against the patriots. >> and they go into overtime. and in the final drive -- >> they lost on a fumble. >> they lost on a fumble. >> the game ended on a fumble right here. i think this is the clip. yes, it is. there's the clip. patriots recover the fumble. game over. 29-26, patriots. >> it's hard to blame mark sanchez, of course, but that's exactly what's going to happen. you just wonder whether the chance of tebow are going to

rise this week. i've got to tell you, this is a far better jets team than we saw three weeks ago. they've really turned it around. >> sanchez still has a little trouble in terms of getting his passes to his receivers in the -- he's going to get a couple of receivers really hurt. he's throwing behind them. he's throwing late. >> all right. >> he's not tom brady, but who is? >> the jets still have a quarterback problem, mika. >> we'll bring the conversation back to the big debate tonight here in boca. andrea mitchell and joe klein are here. and up next, we have the "must-read opinion pages" right here on "morning joe" live from racks downtown eatery in boca. we'll be right back.

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it's 48 past the hour. i've got two must-reads we're going to slam through here. and both are by gentlemen from this set. first, richard haass. >> oh, my. >> you write in "politico," the topics announced by bob schieffer, the moderator, appear reasonable. america's role in the world is a big and important matter. what makes far less sense is the entire premise of monday evening. categorizing some issues as foreign and others as domestic bears little relationship to a world in which what happens out there affects conditions here and vice versa. most important, the list of topics made public leaves out the most serious threat facing the u.s. today and for the foreseeable future. the state of the united states. mr. schieffer should ask the candidates how they will deal with traditional foreign policy challenges, but at the same time, he should ask them what they would do to make sure we are positioned to meet them.

this final debate will be the last chance to confront the next president of the united states with questions that ought to be addressed. nothing less than this country's security depends on it. >> richard, explain it. >> it's exactly that. iran, you know, china, these are important subjects. but all the challenges we face we can meet if we put our own house in order. in the previous two baits did not really make clear. bob schieffer ought not to define foreign policy narrowly. he's got a chance to really shed some light on the basic issues of this election. and it's our last chance to have it done. >> we need clear visions from both candidates so people can understand what's coming. >> what they will do to restore economic growth. we are growing at less than half the level we have for the last 50 years. what will they do to change that? >> when you go to boardrooms across the world, when you look at the deals that are being made, when you look at countries deciding which way they're going to move, closer to the u.s., further away from the u.s.,

they're not looking at our nuclear arsenal. they're not looking at our tanks. it's off power. it's all soft power. is china going to help them out economically in the future more than the united states? if so, well, then -- >> i think we should get it from them. i mean, i really think bob schieffer will be able to make the connection. >> it's a bigger definition than national security. >> all right. here's now another "politico" piece. it's joe scarborough. and you write in tribute to the tea party, but it actually makes sense. i'm not saying the tea party should be immune to criticism, like most large political movements, this one has also had its share of excesses. sometimes the rhetoric gets too heated. at times its members have chosen to obstruct instead of fighting for a debt deal that would solve our fiscal crisis. and the same fervor that drove pelosi from her speaker's chair has also managed to keep reid in his because of some deeply flawed tea party senate nominees. but, all in all, most

republicans i know prefer having the largest gop majority since 1946 instead of pelosi. we also liked having 700 new republican state legislators elected in 2010, a national debate focused on less spending and a democratic president who is now fighting for his political life. whether opinion leaders like it or not, the tea party helped engineer a republican landslide, reframed the national debate and put the president so far back on his heels that even mitt romney has a chance to be president. you make a good point. >> you know, michael steele, i have been asked every day over the past two years, how could it be that the republican party's letting the tea party destroy it? i've heard that the tea party's horrible for the republican party. as i said there, i'm concerned with a lot of the excesses. but the tea party helped save the republican party from bloated big-government republicanism. and you look at what they've done over the past two, three

years, it's undeniable. >> it's undeniable. >> when you were chairman, the largest legislative landslide in u.s. history a year after the tea party was formed, a year after santelli, you know, was on the floor in chicago. >> yeah. >> hard to argue with those results. >> it's hard to argue with the results because what i did at the very beginning in february of 2009 was to still down with this fledgling group of disparate souls who were ticked off at the party, ticked off with the political structure. big-government republicanism. they wanted to get back to some fundamentals. they wants to have a conversation about the nation's health, fiscal health, and spending. so we, instead of trying to cobble together some, you know, patchwork, coordinate and constructively built from the bottom up. and you saw the results, 63 house seats, 700 legislative seats, governorships. >> six governorships. >> we elected minorities at all levels. we expanded the breadth and depth of the party. all that rhetoric from the left about the tea party belies the fact that they were a genuine

movement that tapped into a lot of folks in this country, and we've seen the results. >> mika, did the tea party also give us sharron angle? yes. and we lost that seat because of it. did it also give us christine o'donnell? yes, and we lost the delaware seat. again, all in all, though, you look at what the tea party's done over the last three years, you look at how they've put the president on the defensive over health care. you look at what happened with the midterm elections. you look at scott brown winning in massachusetts taking ted kennedy's seat. it's undeniable. and the reason why the press doesn't see it, the reason why democratic candidates don't see it, is there's just a huge cultural blind spot. if occupy wall street had done one-tenth of what the tea party did, my god, there would be statues in manhattan. all up and down the upper west side. >> we could use a few. all right. still ahead -- no, no, actually, we're not. we're not. you drunk. all right. we'll bring in "time" magazine

political columnist joe klein. coming up, nbc chief foreign affairs correspondent andrea mitchell. you're watching a special edition of "morning joe" live from boca raton. [ owner ] i need to expand to meet the needs of my growing business. but how am i going to fund it? and i have to find a way to manage my cash flow better. [ female announcer ] our wells fargo bankers are here to listen, offer guidance and provide you with options tailored to your business. we've loaned more money to small businesses than any other bank for ten years running. so come talk to us to see how we can help. wells fargo. together we'll go far.

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coming up live here in boca raton, florida, obama deputy campaign manager stephanie cutter and romney senior foreign policy adviser dan senor. keep it right here on "morning joe" live from racks eatery. ♪

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do speak loudly and clearly, you're in boca raton, florida. their city motto is "say it in my good ear." don't mention killing osama bin laden anymore. it was great and all, but americans have a short attention span. at this point saying you killed bin laden is like saying you won the second season of "american idol." don't smile so much. your normal facial expression already looks like you're shaming a waiter. when you smile, it looks like you're about to tell your dad it's time to move into a home. and remember, you're in boca. also, tv networks don't televise the post-debate stage hugs and milling about. it looks like the lights just came on at america's most boring nightclub. >> and welcome back to "morning joe." it's the top of the hour. we are live from racks downtown eatery and tavern in boca raton,

florida. joe is out with the crowd. they like joe. boca likes joe. at least the outside where they put the republicans. we're just miles from where the final presidential debate will take place tonight at lynn university. and inside here, we have john heilemann and richard haass still with us. and joining us on set, nbc chief foreign affairs correspondent and host of "andrea mitchell reports," andrea mitchell, and msnbc political analyst, nyu, former democratic congressman harold ford jr. and squjoe, you're late. >> what's that? i know, it's kind of busy out there. they've been out since 2:30 this morning, and they came here to see andrea and harold. >> i told her the republicans are outside which is why you went to go say hi. >> i actually saw three guys in romney shirts out there, and they're still in one piece. pretty good. >> let's take a look at the polls. we have a lot to talk about. a new nbc/"wall street journal"

poll has the race dead even among likely voters nationwide, 47%-47%. that's before the debate season began, in early september, the president held a five-point lead then, so that's a change. a majority 62% want the president to make major changes if he's re-elected. that's something that stands out in this poll. among women voters, the president's lead is shrinking, now down to eight points. it's the smallest lead president obama has had with women voters all year. among men, mitt romney holds a ten-point advantage. but then look at this. when asked when candidate is better prepared to create jobs and improve the economy, the republican candidate has a four-point edge. last month he had a one-point lead. however, when asked what the nation's economy will do over the next 12 months, only 9% believe it will get worse. that's the lowest number this poll has reported in decades. and when it comes to the direction of the country, 41% say the country is on the right track. the highest number this poll has

reported in three years. president obama has grown his lead from a month ago 46%-38% over who would better handle foreign policy. that's what the debate is about tonight. on afghanistan strategy, mitt romney has closed the gap slightly, but president obama still leads by 12 points. >> harold ford, going into the third and final debate, this race could not be closer. what's your gut? >> the most telling number -- first off, you all ought to be proud to have this kind of crowd here. >> they're here for you, man. >> this is unbelievable what you've got here. >> stop sucking up. >> it's great. it's the sunshine state, my man. they're great. >> 62% of americans saying they want something different than what the president's done the first four years. it validates what's been said, i think, throughout particularly on this show over the last few months that there's a lacking narrative, there's an absence of a clear vision where we go. the question i would have for the campaign and for those who follow it is over the next two weeks, can he craft, draft and articulate, the president, a

convincing enough vision that will penetrate the voters in the key states, ohio, pennsylvania, florida, colorado, nevada. >> so let me stop you with number one. 62% of the voters in this poll say -- >> i think that's a big number. >> 62%, as you know, say they want to see major changes. so when you're talking about crafting a message for the final stretch of the campaign, this president, this campaign team, chicago has come up short in giving a compelling reason for voters to re-elect this president. that's a huge number, isn't it? >> that number -- and i don't know -- i mean, grnted, a lot of things can happen. mitt romney changed the entire trajectory of the campaign on october 3rd. he knocked out essentially 300 to $400 million of disqualifying negative advertising against him with an hour and a half performance. so anything -- >> isn't that amazing? >> -- is possible. it's remarkable. john and i were discussing right before we came on how this will transform the way we talk about presidential politics. but the question for chicago is do you take the chance? i think you do.

over the next two weeks to craft that vision and to lay it out and to make the case repeatedly throughout the battleground states. >> andrea, they're not going to disqualify mitt romney. he passed that test. he was the ceo in charge of the boardroom in denver. nobody will ever believe that he's not qualified to be president. so i guess the obama -- i say these swing voters. they're not going to make enough of them, believe that, to make a difference in this campaign. so what are they going to do the last couple weeks of the campaign? >> the problem, the challenge for them is they do not want to take the chance of being specific about their vision because almost anything that they propose is controversial and would lose them potentially as many votes as they gain. and i don't think they can do that. where is their big audience? their big audience is tonight. don't he's going to, for the first time, say what he'll do about taxes and the budget deficit and be specific and give people that vision? that is very hard to do that. >> not going to happen. >> that's not going to happen. so their game has to be, first

of all, take their advantage in that poll. 50-point advantage among hispanics and try to do something really different. eke out a victory, colorado and florida. >> right. >> hold on to nevada. >> right. >> build your support among women. you've got to expand that gender gap beyond eight points, if that's a real number because you can't shrink it to eight points and have that deficit among white men and still win this election. and make sure that they don't make a play for pennsylvania and michigan. i don't think michigan's possible. i didn't think pennsylvania was possible. i don't think it's going to happen, but that is sort of the -- it's the head game that the republicans are playing. >> and john heilemann, isn't the challenge for the candidates tonight to do, quite frankly, what richard's proposed in his piece in "politico," which is try and connect the crisis that we face abroad and with our stability here at home and our position in the world? >> i think they will both try to do that in varying ways. i do want to go back to the point earlier, i think only

slight exception to what you guys just said. the negative advertising, mitt romney did a huge favor for himself. barack obama failed in denver. and a lot of the damage that had been done was eradicated. not all of this, though. and there's a reason why president obama still is doing better in ohio than he's doing nationally. it's because a lot of that advertising has, in fact, worked on the margins in ohio. we're now talking about a very small set of undecided voters. you ask what they're going to do next. i think they're going to try -- and they're already showing signs with the advertising in ohio -- can they make mitt romney continue to pay a high enough price for the auto bailout. that could be a high enough turnout. is to continue to hammer mitt romney. that's what their new advertising is doing in ohio. hammer him on opposing the auto bailout, white working-class voters, especially blue-collar women in ohio, very concerned about the economy, hammering romney on that and continuing to highlight, as the president has, the differences on lilly ledbetter, on planned parenthood. if you talk to white blue-collar

women in those states, ohio, michigan, wisconsin, iowa, those things resonate and could be the margin of victory in those states. >> the number's too high. >> yeah, it's too high. if i'm a politician, which i was, you were, too, you always look at those polls. i always would go first to the re-elect, see how much trouble i was in, see how much over 50% i was. if you are at 47% and you're barack obama, the most famous person on the planet and there are still undecideds trying to figure out what's going on, i tell you what i'd be saying to my camp, we're screwed. if you're still undecided about me after five years, we'd better get the hispanics out, women out, our base out. we'd better do karl rove 2004 because we're not going to get the undecideds. >> andrea and john are absolutely right. he probably has -- i'm not saying he's do one versus the other, but i do think tonight -- and i would ask andrea and richard, who are experts in this

area, say this evening, america's strength around the globe, that we are strengthened in our abilities when we are strong here at home economically. and to talk a little about tax policy, how we're going to balance the budget. i honestly believe and we said this at the convention, if there had been a concerted effort to embrace something like simpson-bowles, even if we called it the obama plan versus we're going to continue what we did in the last four years, i think he'd be strengthened not only in the other debates but on this one tonight. you've got to focus on women in ohio, latinos particularly in colorado. i'm like joe. if i saw those numbers two weeks out -- >> you'd be surprised. >> you'd be scared to death. >> andrea. >> a couple things. turnout, turnout and turnout. in talking to the democratic operatives, they think they've got a better machine in different states. you're going to see joe biden and barack obama together in dayton tomorrow. they're counting on big rallies like the madison, wisconsin, rally to try to generate more excitement and what they do is more registration, more voting,

off-site voting at these campus rallies. the students are a big, big thing for them. and getting to what richard haass and the council on foreign relations did with their study that condi rice co-chaired, economic security and national security issue, that is almost a better argument for mitt romney tonight, harold. i think both candidates will try to make that argument, but mitt romney might be able to articulate that argument better than barack obama. >> and mika, following up on what andrea said, if we wake up the morning after and barack obama has won this election, he will have won it because of turnout. i mean, it am comes down to turnout. we're looking at these polls and trying to figure out what's going to happen. the big question, mark, it turnout. if they have a turnout like 2004, barack obama wins. if they don't, mitt romney wins. >> and joe, remember, that's what they've done for the last year and a half. >> right. obsess on that. >> the advantage of incumbency

is you have a lot of money, a lot of technology -- >> and they weren't bad at it the first time. >> and they were great the first time. >> you've been in nine states for a year and a half working on this. >> okay. richard haass. >> turnout's fine, but turnout takes place within a context. and tonight is the last really good chance for both candidates to shape the context. i think part of the reality, you might call it intervention fatigue. after iraq, after afghanistan, americans do not want a foreign policy where we are sending hundreds of thousands of american troops abroad. again, they've got to connect what we're doing abroad to what we're doing at home. >> but richard, the problem is -- >> that's a great point. >> -- the problem is, you've got a republican that wants to -- that's more interventionist than a democratic president who i think is too interventionist. >> i think the challenge for mitt romney is to decide which way to go. does he try to outflank barack obama on the right, on things like afghanistan, defense spending, as he's done up to now? or does he really portray himself more as someone who has the temperament to be commander in chief, who's going to not do things abroad that in any way will get in the way of

rebuilding here at home. and i think it's a choice for which way he plays this. >> so the romney campaign has been so critical, andrea and richard, on iran, on the president's approach to iran, it not being enough. what hasn't this administration done that the romney presidency would do before go to war? >> wait. you say romney, you raise your eye brows. romney. >> because they've been mischaracterizing -- >> did you see that? that the romney campaign? >> that's all you've got? seriously, they've been exploiting this and mischaracterizing what the administration has actually done with iran. >> is there a question in here, chris? >> well, i'm trying to get to it. >> i would just say, i was quite surprised by the republican take on the talk shows, on the sunday talk shows. marco rubio saying -- not pouncing on this saturday night/"new york times" story that there were background talks about getting together, having the u.s. and iran negotiate. you might have thought that they would pounce. what is this accommodationist, coming from the democrats.

instead, well, notes not talk about that is basically the republican posture. i think that they take what joe is saying, that americans are war weary. >> extremely. >> they want diplomacy. they want negotiations. and i'm not sure you're going to see mitt romney beat up on them tonight. but the thing to your question, there could not have been tighter sanctions, i don't think. and when they say -- when rubio and others say that it was the republicans and other countries who led the way on sanctions, this administration, to its credit, got the central bank sanctions and got the europeans to do the oil sanctions. and if iran is finally willing to talk about it, it would be only if the ayatollah makes that decision, it's only because the economy has collapsed. >> he's the commander in chief, but the republicans in congress did push as well. there's no doubt about it. he was a little slow to the game. he put great sanctions down, but he was also pushed, richard, hard by republicans in congress. >> you actually have bipartisanship working here,

multilateralism. this is a real success. where the administration is a little vulnerable on iran, they didn't push the green revolution with people in the streets p skpp it will be interesting to listen to the candidates on what it is we're prepared to tolerate. mitt romney talks about not letting iran have a nuclear weapons capability. i underline that word. barack obama talks about not letting iran have nuclear weapons. the question is what are we prepared to tolerate short of that? >> that's a good debate. they have to be honest to have it. >> sounds like you guys are talking about whether mitt romney's going to try to do another etch-a-sketch tonight. >> exactly. that's what i think. >> etch-a-sketch neocon policy. is that what you're saying? >> i wish he would. he wish he would be more of a realist than a neocon. if he were more of a realist, he'd pick up a ton of votes on afghanistan, a ton of votes on saying i'm not going to be george w. bush. i'm not going to try to export democracy to all four corners of the globe. i'm going to worry about rebuilding the united states first and rebuilding countries across the globe next.

>> it would be better if he said that and actually meant it. >> meant it. >> what does he mean? i mean, come on. >> most people don't know where he stood on these issues a year ago. most americans are just tuning in. as much as we have followed it and those of us who read richard's magazines and watch andrea's show, the majority of americans are just hearing mitt romney for the very first time. >> so they haven't watched him try out different positions to see which ones the polls like. >> richard haass, thank you very much. harold and andrea, stay with us. mika, why do you hate me so much? loving would be so much easier. richard haass, like jon meacham, has an upcoming book. >> it's called forthcoming. >> forthcoming book, exactly. coming up next, we have obama deputy campaign manager stephanie cutter. also, romney senior foreign policy adviser, hurricane dan. >> oh, boy. >> also, eugene robinson and chuck todd will be with us. and mike barnicle is standing

outside with an incredible crowd. mike, what's going on out there? >> joe, we're out here with a group of homeless people who have no place to go, but they showed up here. there's about 3,000 of them to see joe and mika. this woman it from wilmington, delaware. >> originally. boca raton. >> did you come down here to escape joe biden? >> no, i love joe. >> we all love joe. >> hi. >> you live -- you live upstairs. >> you guys woke me up, but it's a pleasure! >> we woke you up with all this noise? >> i came down right out of bed. >> where are you from? >> i live in boca but from baltimore. >> from baltimore. baltimore city. baltimore, maryland. and where are you from, sir? >> i'm a ghost from your past. >> boy, that is true. >> 40 years ago we were the hottest ticket in boston. >> and look at us now. where are you from? >> jackson hole, wyoming. >> now, we have a couple of people here who are going to

vote for the first time in an american election. it's true. from france. from burgundy? the other one. >> even though they're not registered, they're in florida, they can vote. remember 2000? they're voting. as you are from toronto. >> yes, right. >> everybody votes in florida! up next, the aforementioned joe klein from "time" magazine. you're watching "morning joe" live from racks downtown eatery and tavern. no, no, no, stop! humans -- one day, we're coming up with the theory of relativity, the next... stop, stop, stop! my car! not so much. but that's okay. you're covered with great ideas like optional better car replacement from liberty mutual insurance. total your car, and we give you the money to buy one a model year newer. learn about it at libertymutual.com.

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welcome back to "morning joe." here with us now, political columnist for "time" magazine, joe klein. good to have you on board, joe. first, john heilemann, though, you've got some new numbers coming out of ohio. >> yeah, we've got a brand-new just hot off the presses quinnipiac university/cbs poll has obama 50%-45% among likely

voters in ohio. now, that is obviously good news for the president. and yet to go back to the subject we were talking about earlier today, which is momentum, that same poll on september 26th had the president up by ten. so he's down. he's lost five points, but he's still up five. good news that he's up five for president obama. bad news that he's down from ten. >> and it is all momentum. harold ford, we talked about polls. it's also momentum. a poll like that means if i'm on either side, i just got a lot more nervous because, listen, you want to be -- you want to be up five points. i mean, and that's a huge lead. but if you drop ten to five, it means you've got to run out the clock. >> and i'll tell you, he's still holding a 15-point lead in women in ohio, which is a lot of those really important blue-collar women. the waitress moms. so much of the focus on what obama's doing in ohio. still maintaining his gender lead there. and some really troubling numbers for romney. only 37% of ohio voters say that

romney cares about their needs and problems. so it's still a big problem there. >> alex is just telling me, of people that have already voted, 54% voted for barack obama. 39% voted for mitt romney. the early votes, as we've been saying for so long -- >> they like what had you're saying back there. >> -- very important. this race is going to be so close. >> and your point about the ground game. >> it's all the ground game. >> the ground game is both about turnout, but it's also about early voting. and the obama campaign has a huge advantage there. >> joe klein, this race is going to be so close. again, a five-point lead, huge for barack obama. the trend line's not so great for him, though. this all comes out -- i mean, doesn't this seem like '04? it's going to be turnout, turnout, turnout. the ken mehlman, karl rove approach. >> there's one thing that's going to happen tonight that's really important for ohio. there's one foreign policy issue that matters there, and that is klein that.

>> right. >> the reason why romney is talking more and more and more aggressively about china is because he's getting it from focus groups in ohio. that is the one foreign policy -- >> why's that? why is china so important to ohio? >> because in the middle of the country, in the rust belt, in the old industrial areas, they think that we're losing jobs to them and that we're slipping behind them. romney is taking a position that bill clinton and every last challenger has taken over the last 20 years, which is we've got to get tougher with china. that's a stupid policy because you're going to have a trade war. the question is -- the question is, what does the president do to counter romney's aggressiveness tonight? >> won't the counter, be, andrea, exports and the three trade deals that allows a lot of manufacturers now to get business and build their companies because they can export more? >> there are studies that show that you pay more for your products here. that it really hurts consumers if there is a trade war. the promise that romney has made over and over again that jon huntsman and a lot of mainstream

republicans say is dangerous and ridiculous is that i am going to attack the currency of china on day one. and i don't think, harold, you know anybody on wall street or anyone in either party who thinks that that's a good idea. >> but andrea, this happens, though, all the time. joe klein, i remember 1992. you had bill clinton going after china agressively, nonstop. he wins the election. he goes to the white house. he talks to george h.w. bush, and they both come out and say, everything's fine. we love china. and this is a couple years after tiananmen square. >> do you know what obama's actual real counter is? and that is the chevy cruze, assembled in lordstown. they've called it the ohio car because everything down to the seat covers is made in ohio. that's why people like the president there because he saved the auto industry. >> what's unemployment in ohio? >> it's 7%.

>> and also -- >> it never forgets. 33 out of 38 counties in ohio with auto parts suppliers directly affected by the auto bailout. it's made a huge difference. >> and china's also been a leading indicator, harold, for some time. you remember five months back, you had the governor of ohio whose numbers have gone up a great deal over the past six months, bragging about how great ohio's doing economically, and mitt romney going, don't do that. >> don't say that. >> ohio was actually ahead of the rest of the country as far as turning things around. the right track/wrong track moving closer to 50%. and we may be seeing that may still be a problem for mitt romney. >> i hesitate to embrace john heilemann's point often, but i have to this morning. >> you've got to. >> the car manufacturing issue is so critical. that's why their jobs numbers come down. that has been the most complicated, confusing and contentious issue i would imagine inside the romney campaign because how do you talk about job growth, improving

economic opportunity in ohio, when you have the kind of prosperity they have, and you know it's because -- largely because of what president obama did. i will say this. this china thing is serious in ohio. one of the reasons that number is closing, for romney to make the ridiculous and irresponsible statement that he will declare china a currency manipulator day one on the job not only rattles people in business, it rattles businesses around the globe. not just u.s. business. businesses around the globe because of the impact, the ripple effect that will have across the global economies. china contracts the world is impacted. it's problematic. however, it works politically. it works politically in ohio. >> it does work on the ground. the other real problem that romney is going to have tonight is that his differences on most of these foreign policy issues with obama are nonexistent. and if you're doing debate prep and you've got one adviser who says no, you know, you're in about the same place and you've got another on the far right, a neoconservative saying you've

got to be tougher. you've got to be tougher. you listen to the far right ones, and that, as you said before, joe, the country is not there. >> the country's not there. they haven't been there for years. >> on this issue, then, joe, what does romney do? >> on the auto bailout. >> auto bailout, china, how does he handle it? >> i'm surprised they haven't handled the auto bailout better. if i were in mitt romney's place, i would have started saying a year ago, listen, here's the deal. yeah, i opposed the bailout. i wanted to have the companies go into bankruptcy -- he's said this but he hasn't dove in -- and then we could let the market handle it, then you could renegotiate the union contracts. then they could come out the other side, and they would be stronger than ever. instead we've got the federal government involved. they took your money. they reinvested it in general motors which, by the way, the government doesn't want to sell back. he should have gone that way, but it's always been sort of this halfway measure. so ohio voters haven't had -- >> there's one problem with that, joe. there's one factual problem with that. and that is that they couldn't have emerged from bankruptcy

without the government guarantees in the front end. they needed the guarantees to go into bankruptcy. >> there's no previous investment at that stage. >> in the end if barack obama wins this election by winning ohio, the most important thing that may have ever happened was mitt romney writing that op-ed which i'm sure he thought was so clever in 2009 with the headline chosen by him, "let detroit go bankrupt." >> he says he did not choose the headline. >> that's great. >> i stand corrected on that. >> that headline was not his fault. >> but a devastating -- a devastating thing. >> john, if you've done that, i'm going to quote bill clinton here, better to be strong than wrong. he needed to embrace -- >> then we can write. >> then we can write. he need to do embrace this argument and go all the way in. he hasn't done that. he's in sort of the killing fields, and he's still losing ohio because of it. >> all right. >> in the first debate, remember he said his approach was similar

to president obama's approach, that he believed in bankruptcy, which is just hollow and wrong. >> john heilemann, thank you so much, as well as harold ford. >> thank you. up next, we're going to bring in stephanie cutter on what the obama team's strategy will be for tonight's debate. we'll be right back with much more "morning joe." frank, instead of scratching your way to retirement, get on e-trade. set up a real plan. frank! oh wow, you didn't win? i wanna show you something... it's my shocked face. [ gasps ] [ male announcer ] get a retirement plan that works... at e-trade.

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welcome back. we're live downtown at racks eatery and tavern. this is sidney. as you can see, sidney is voting for obama, and she's wide awake. and look here. we have gianna. she's voting for obama as well. and then over here, we have charlotte. she's voting for romney if she ever wakes up. we'll be right back with much more "morning joe." ♪

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we have reached our final question of the night, and this is from carrie lapkis. >> i'm waving. can you see me? i'm waving. i'm waving. can you see me? you can. oh. >> mr. lapkis, please. >> libya. >> you know, i'm glad you brought libya up, you know, because governor romney wants to politicize libya. >> i am willing to bet here and now that you have never, in your life, even once used the phrase "terrorist act."

>> get the transcript. get it. >> governor, he has, in fact, used the phrase "terrorist act." >> candy, no, no, no. candy, come on. candy. >> i'm afraid he did. >> candy, please. candy. >> tonight, baby. >> welcome back to "morning joe." the sun's up in boca, but we've been awake for hours along with hundreds of people live at racks downtown eatery and tavern. here with us now, obama deputy campaign manager, stephanie cutter, along with sidney. i thought she'd help along with the interview today. she is the world's most perfect baby. >> hey, sidney, are you going to ask stephanie some tough questions? >> yes. and here's the first one, stephanie. there you go. >> there you go. mark halperin, you have the next question for stephanie.

>> a follow on sidney's question. just in a conversational way, all this talk about the president not talking about his second-term agenda, "the wall street journal"/nbc news poll suggesting people would like to see changes. what will the president do differently on the economy in the second term if he's re-elected than he did in the first term? >> well, build on the progress we've made, making some of those key investments we need to grow. he has laid out a second-term ad agen agenda. it was the reason we got such a big bump out of the convention. it means more investment and manufacturing jobs, by doubling our exports, closing loopholes. 100,000 math and science teachers so our kids can compete globally. it means 2 million workers trained at community colleges, cutting in half our fedependenc on foreign oil to create new industries here at home but also be more secure at home.

cutting the deficit, $4 trillion plan to reduce the deficit. of course ending the war in afghanistan and using those savings to invest here at home. nation building back here at home after a decade of war. roads, bridges, highways, putting construction workers back to work. it's continuing the steady growth that we've had, rebuilding that economy from the middle out. this is all about a fight for the middle class. and who is better at strengthening and rebuilding the middle class after the worst economic crisis of our lifetimes. and that's the agenda the president has put in place. we know how this works. it worked in the clinton years. the president is making those same investments, building that economy meant to last. >> look, i'm good, huh? >> yes, you are good. can i hold her? >> keep it right there. so here's the thing. you make a good point. there is good data to look at. why don't people hear it? why don't people feel it? first of all, a lot of people are still hurting. >> yes. >> is the president caught in the trap of not wanting to be overly optimistic? because there are people who are still hurting, and then not saying enough about selling what he's done? because there's a lot of talk

about fair shot and taxes. and not really a lot of talk about some of the clear data out there about housing, consumer confidence and unemployment. >> right. well, i think that, you know, certainly it took us a while to get into this mess. and it's going to take us a while to dig out. and the president has been doing that. he is optimistic. and i think if you look at "the wall street journal" poll, there's optimism there, too. most people see the economy improving over the next year, and that's because the policies the president's put in place. forecasters predict 12 million jobs over the next four years. and you know, maybe we do need to tout some of these signs of progress. highest consumer confidence in five years. 5.2 million private sector jobs. the lowest foreclosure rate in five years. these are real signs of progress. we are rebuilding. the country is moving forward. >> michael steele? >> you lay out the argument, as mika just noted, a lot of folks aren't catching it. the focus is on foreign policy. do you see the president making

that connection between the global economy, if you will, and the foreign issues that we have, whether it's iran or egypt or israel, tying that into the economy and sort of projecting that into the next four years? how does he make that transition for the american people since at the end of it, it's still all about the economy? >> right. well, you know, as i said, a big piece of his agenda is that nation building back at home after a decade of war, using the savings from ending iraq and afghanistan and investing back at home. another big piece of it, which i'm sure he'll talk about tonight, mitt romney's talking about on the campaign trail all the time is china. and how we level the playing field with china. you know, the president has taken more enforcement cases at the wto, twice the number of enforcement cases over the last four years, as the previous administration did in eight years. we are leveling the playing field. now, mitt romney talks tough on china, you know, he's going to call it a currency manipulator. even his own party is criticizing him for that because

that's going to start a trade war. the chamber of commerce, senator rubio yesterday was criticizing mitt romney for saying that. you know, the president takes a responsible but strong approach to protect american business, to protect american workers. when he took action to protect the american tire industry, tire workers in ohio, mitt romney called that protectionist. yet, you know, he has now flipped on that and is trying to get tough on china. so that's a piece of the conversation that we'll have tonight and we look forward to that. >> andrea mitchell, jump in. >> you're absolutely right that the nbc news/"wall street journal" poll shows only 9% now, the lowest number in decades, feel that the economy will not improve. so there's more economic optimism out there, but still 62%, as we've all been talking about, 62% want dramatic changes if there were to be a second term. and does the president besides saying we're going to do more of the same, does he have to tonight lay out a more specific agenda? >> well, andrea, we have laid

out a specific agenda. i think that what the american people are talking about in terms of big changes in a second term has a lot to do with washington and breaking that gridlock in washington. you'll hear about that tonight. you'll hear about that on the campaign trail every day about how the country needs to come together. how this election can actually break that fever of partisan gridlock. you know, the only thing that's blocking us from taking some significant steps on our deficit, taking some significant steps on investing in the middle class and the things that we need to grow is the intransigence on asking those at the top to pay just a nickel more in taxes. and you know, this election, that's a big piece of this election in terms of determining how are we going to move forward in reducing our debt sitficits, make sure everybody pays their fair share so we can invest and grow? >> does he have an answer on benghazi? because people have been asking who knew what when. it's now been reported that the cia had an assessment that did apparently give susan rice and

others inaccurate information because it was a preliminary assessment. more information was coming in. did they speak too soon too definitively? and we just saw these cables on friday from darrell issa that ambassador stevens asked for more help, asked for more bodyguards, asked for more security. >> you know, he spoke to this last week in the debate. i'm sure it's going to be a topic tonight. but i think that he'll say, look. you know, this investigation is ongoing. and we are working it hard. we want to get to the bottom of what happened so that we can make sure it never happens again, but we can also bring those who killed four american people to justice. so i think that, you know, one of the things that i found interesting is darrell issa dumped out all of those documents. and it occurred to me that, you know, dumping that out the friday before a foreign policy debate was really all about politics. and the politics were set by mitt romney on the day of that tragedy when he came out and shot from the hip and before he

had any facts blamed the united states. and blamed the president. and you know, he set the tone for his party. he said, okay, go ahead and play politics with this. as a result, those documents that were released had important information, revealed names of libyans on the ground that are helping us, that are helping us stay secure. so we're putting lives at risk because we're playing politics, and we're making the country less secure. >> stephanie cutter, sidney completely agrees with you. she does. >> i don't. >> that makes one of you. >> i don't, but, that said, sidney came to wish her a happy birthday. and seeing it's your birthday, we're going to give you the last word. >> oh! what was that? >> and they're breaking glass for stephanie cutter's 23rd birthday. happy birthday. >> thank you. >> and good luck tonight. >> that was scary. thank you so much. still ahead -- what was that, sidney -- romney senior foreign policy -- oh, that's what it was. it's very scary what's coming up

next. dan senor. i will protect the baby. you're watching a special edition of "morning joe" live from boca. we'll be right back. [ woman ] ring. ring. progresso. i just finished a bowl of your new light chicken pot pie soup and it's so rich and creamy... is it really 100 calories? let me put you on webcan... ...lean roasted chicken... and a creamy broth mmm i can still see you. [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup. to bring you a low-priced medicare prescription drug plan. ♪ with a low national plan premium... ♪ ...and copays as low as one dollar... ♪ ...saving on your medicare prescriptions is easy. ♪ so you're free to focus on the things that really matter.

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♪ all right. here we are. back at boca raton, with the mayor, and gary rack, the owner of racks. madam mayor? >> yes, sir. >> what's the biggest issue in boca raton. is it true the biggest issue is too few safety deposit boxes? >> no, no. that is not a correct answer. but the biggest issue this week is to make sure that we are safe and secure and that we have done our job properly, and i know that we have, and i know that we will. and everything is going to be great. and especially because you guys are in town today. >> thank you. thank you very much. gary rack, how does it feel to have, like, a third of the restaurant filled with free loaders from new york? >> we think it's -- >> i mean me. >> not you. we think it's fabulous for the city of boca that boca is not known as a little local bedroom community, but as the vibrant

metropolis of thriving businesses and we're here to support the city all we can. >> the growth of boca itself, when you came from north florida, the population was 26,000. it's now 75 or 80 -- >> it's 86,000 now. we've exploded in the last 25, 30 years, boca raton is a whole different place. as gary mentioned, we are not a sleepy community any longer. we are vibrant, active. very, very business oriented, young community. >> why are you looking directly at me when you say sleepy community and young. >> well, do you think you fit that description, or -- >> no, not at all. >> me either. >> thank you. >> we're young. we're young. >> gary, we've seen the menu, tasted the food. it's all great. you have the usual guys -- cooking, doing a great job. the usual breakfast menu. what else is on the menu? >> special "morning joe" scrambled eggs, especially for joe. a tremendous breakfast pizza

designed especially as a brunch item. traditional french toast, muffins, bagels. the normal breakfast food. >> you know what else you have on the menu? >> tell me. >> chuck todd and gene robinson. coming up, live from the site of tonight's debate at lind university close by. we'll be back. "morning joe" from boca raton, florida. by bright eyes

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a new gallup poll shows that mitt romney now has a seven-point lead on president obama. that's right. romney leads by seven points among people who still answer land line calls from a blocked number. those people. >> welcome back to "morning joe," live in boca. the sun is up. we have hundreds and hundreds of people here. we're just a few miles away from lind university, where tonight the candidates will go head-to-head in the final presidential debate. great crowd here. i do have a clarification to make. >> what's that? >> i did a tease earlier with two babies that are very cute with obama t-shirts. and charlotte here, was asleep. so i assumed she was a romney

supporter. she is now awake, and she too is for team obama. >> okay. >> thank you, charlotte. >> if you have a baby, and you are the greater boca area and your baby supports mitt romney, please, bring your baby. we have a baby-off. >> right now, obama babies are winning. >> also with us, pulitzer prize winning columnist, associate editor of "the washington post" and msnbc political analyst and obviously a rock star in boca, eugene robinson! we've got chief washington correspondent of cnbc and political writer for "the new york times" and the man who says gene moves like jagger, john arwood and nbc white house correspondent and political director and host of "the daily

rundown," chuck todd. the polls are obviously split. the momentum is going mitt romney's way. but it is so close. also, i'm sure you've seen it already, a new quinnipiac university poll showing mitt romney gaining ground in the political state of ohio. romney trailed by ten points last month, cut the president's lead to five points, all about big mo and momentum. the question is whether mitt romney has enough time to catch him. this race, chuck, you'll get all the polls, it is getting so close. it all comes down to turnout, doesn't it? >> well, it is. look, mitt romney is winning the -- the macro argument right now. and -- but barack obama is winning small ball. and -- you know, you could look at it that way by issues, whether it's the micro targeting that obama is trying to do with women and latinos or the national versus the states. but if you look at this national poll, joe, and i said -- and we came up with a poll, the sunday

before election, that said it was 47-47 before the election, of any challenger and incumbent, i would say seven times out of ten challenger wins that race. and so too -- this 47-47 is -- it's a tie, but -- right? it's a tie, but it's romney that appears to have the advantages going in the next couple weeks. but that's -- we've got a debate tonight. there's a long way to go. we've got -- the fact is, on a micro level, state by state level, the president still has tactical advantages in ohio, demographic advantages in colorado. and i would dare say here in florida. i think that, you know, it's interesting, as we have been going through, what are the decisive states? is it going to be virginia and ohio, ohio, iowa and wisconsin? i think when you look at sort of the president's demographic strengths and weaknesses and mitt romney's, i think for some -- i'm stuck now on colorado, florida, ohio.

if you will. as sort of this -- the final three. and the candidate that wins two of those three, that virginia may be slipping away from the democrats, tilting a little more to romney. but that's what we're looking at here, because of the -- this hispanic issue for the president may save him, if he wins re-election. >> you know, gene, when you look at these numbers, and obviously looks like whether you're talking about ohio or the national polls or other state polls, pennsylvania, you named it, looks like the momentum is breaking. in mitt romney's direction. that said, in this quinnipiac poll, one of five likely voters say they have already cast their vote and barack obama is winning the turnout game, and it's looking more and more like if barack obama wins, he's going to win on turnout. he's going to win -- for the same reason bush won in 2004. >> i think turnout, the old fashioned ground game, getting out the vote is going to be supremely important this time. and i'm wondering what is mom

momentum this year with the early debates and ups and downs, i wonder if there is such a thing as the classic momentum we have seen in previous elections. i don't quite sense that. clearly, romney caught up. i think obama did a lot in the last debate to blunt whatever momentum that created. but here we are. >> i'm looking out the window, john harwood, women for mitt. and she is very excited, yes, yes, i see, hello, jumping up and down. and as you look at the polls here, there is a pronounced gender back, president obama leads romney by 15 points. but we have seen different polls -- >> that's in ohio. "wall street journal" poll shows a tightening gap, eight percentage points or other polls that show it closer. but it looks like if you listen to chuck, he's dead right. can barack obama run up a big enough lead with women, and with hispanics? if he does, he wins. if he doesn't, he loses, right? >> no question, those are the

two important constituencies, as well as whether or not they can get young people out. young people, who overwhelmingly for obama are down in enthusiasm. by the way, it is clear that if gene robinson were on the ballot, he would be doing better with women. >> are you kidding me? they would be going crazy. >> but i think romney's rise among women voters has been a significant factor of lifting him to a tie. to be less than ten points down to obama among women likely voters, than an achievement. because we have seen in some of the key states -- last week we had iowa and wisconsin. obama was up 18 among women in both those places. if romney is actually getting single digits, he's in better shape. >> and how is he doing that, and what does barack obama do moving forward as far as women, hispanic voters? how does he pull out his key constituents? >> a lot is the micro targeting, advertising. the obama campaign has done a surprisingly large amount of its advertising on issues of abortion and contraception. but you're going to see a lot of direct mail, voter-to-voter

contact in these battleground states and they're trying to win the economic argument, as well. particularly in ohio, where you've got an ad the president on the auto bailout that ends with a graphic that says "mitt romney, not one of us". and that not one of us is meant for a wide audience, aimed at working class people to try to keep them with the president, bring them back to the president. >> can you compare this operation, the president's turnout operation in 2012, with george w. bush's in 2004? because i knew in august that the operation that ken malman was running was extraordinary, trend-setting, one of a kind. can you compare 2004 with the obama machine with 2012 and rover. >> in theory, the same. they want voter to voter contact, neighbor to neighbor, not outsiders, but people talking to people they know who have been on the ground for a long time. as a matter of scale, quantity, it's the biggest that's ever been built. i think i would say far bigger

or substantially bigger than even what ken malman and the president pushed in their reelect. if the enthusiasm gap is big, those mechanics are fraught knot going to be able to turn people out. you cannot force people to turn out for the election who are dispirited to vote. but the president is trying to strike that spark with the base. if that spark is there with the mechanics, that could easily be the difference in this race. >> one of the things we saw in the nbc poll yesterday, romney has gotten to near parity with obama in voter contact. so when you ask people, have you been contacted by a campaign, obama has more, but romney is getting close. >> chuck. >> yeah. no, look. this thing is -- we keep going back. it is becoming a demographic selection, right? if the demographics hold for obama in florida and in colorado, he wins, he takes florida away, it's a checkmate. but it's a reverse here for

romney. you know, what's interesting about ohio, demographically, when you look at romney's strengths nationally with white men, with white voters, he's hitting the targets, he's performing better with white voters than mccain was at this point in time four years ago, or did during the exit poll, be then you would sit here and look at it and say ohio has to be tied or romney should be a little bit ahead. and he's not. and the question is, in two weeks, can he make up -- i heard that, you know, he's not one of us. can he make up the -- romney's issues -- his strength is this -- his support with white men. but it's a problem in the states of ohio and to a lesser extent iowa. gives him opportunity. but it's sort of the same opportunity there for romney that obama, for instance, has here in florida, which has become decidedly less white even in the last four years. >> michael steele, the enthusiasm gap or lack thereof and people feeling connected

with what's going on, does that affect the ground game? >> absolutely. >> that president obama built for himself? is. >> the heart and soul of the micro aspect of this campaign that chuck touched on just now. the bottom line, as was just noted, if i don't feel you, if i'm not motivated, if i'm not energized, i'm not going. i'm staying at home, i'm going to make an excuse. and obama right now, particularly coming off that first debate where he depressed his base, has got to keep swinging at that, driving those folks, getting those big rallies, to make that momentum, push him back out in states like ohio. that's the battleground. florida, yeah, you play. you know, nevada, colorado -- but ohio really has become the symbol. >> so if you were talking -- to the president this morning, what would you tell him to do to inspire his base tonight? >> i think what i would say is, look, you know, romney has gotten the best of you in just in terms of the visual. you now have to bring it up to the next level. you have to show how this guy is not really ready to do what you

have done, to push this country through a tough economic time, and to go out there and talk about the next four years. i go back to the point you've been raising, joe, mika. this president has got to talk about the next four years. he cannot look back and go this is what i have done. he has got to tell his base. >> there are things to talk about. >> they want to see that bridge connected between the jobs he has created, the 5 million -- gm, et cetera, and tie that to what tomorrow looks like. >> and gene, i guess the most striking number in this poll we have been looking at this morning is the 62% of americans that were surveyed by nbc news, "wall street journal," saying they want the president to make, quote, major changes in the next four years. how does the president address that tonight? what -- how does he tell americans, elect me, i've got a sweeping vision for the next four years, not just let's talk about the last -- >> well, i think he does that. i mean, he talks about something he's going to change in the next four years. and you know, pick one.

i mean, pick -- >> yeah. >> something. but talk about something. my theory all along has been that the candidate gives a positive, forward-looking vision of the economy and the nation's future for the next four years, next eight years. he's going to win this election. and, you know, we're kind of waiting for -- we've heard gl glimme glimmers, but we haven't heard a full enough version, i think, from president obama. and this would be the time to do it. now -- but it's difficult to do in a foreign policy debate. you've got to kind of twist it around. and as good as all of us are of answering the question we want to answer rather than the question that's asked, it's tough if the subject is -- >> i think it can be done. >> that reminds me of my tax policy. chuck, we focus a lot on the debate tonight and the candidates. what is your sense of the advertising wars the rest of the way, both in terms of the campaigns and the outside groups, mostly negative,

probably. but what are the ads likely to focus on, what are they focusing on now? >> i think it's mostly negative on the republican side. i think you're going to see a little subtle shift on the president's side and democratic side a little more positive or affirmative case. if you will. but i have to tell you, by the financial numbers, you're going to see a feeling that is if the republican money might start to feel as if it's overwhelming some of the democratic money in some of these states. not every one. but to go to the -- gene's question on sort of the president's messaging, tomorrow i think you're going to see the shift. tonight's debate, foreign policy, there's not -- all of those things you guys are talking about, it's very difficult to do in a foreign policy debate. and frankly, i assume the president's focus tonight -- mitt romney's focus is to hug the president without embracing it, right? it's to try to make it look blur, differences, come out of this with a wash. and he looks like he's on par in commander in chief. the president has to figure out

how to show differences, try to make romney own unpopular bush foreign policy positions, things like that, and create distinctions, because he needs to show those distinctions. but starting tomorrow, i think you're going to hear the closing argument. you're going to start hearing him say more, talk more. we've seen the closing argument already, right? we saw -- remember the two-minute ad he ran a couple weeks ago? you're going to start seeing versions of that ad and a new version, my understanding, and more of the affirmative case starting tomorrow. the second term is going to look like x. because you know what, that's the biggest take-away i got from this poll, you have a bunch of voters here who are reluctant to rehire the president, because they're also reluctant to fire. they're simply basically -- what are you going to do? and until the president says what he's going to do, then they'll make a decision. >> okay, john harwood, looking ahead to tonight's debate, and how -- for example, the challenge for the president to be strong on foreign policy, to call out mitt romney

aggressively on perhaps things that have -- he has said in the past. at the same time, isn't he constrained to an extent, because you have to be very careful about the language you use when you're discussing these issues. >> certainly, you do. and i think the president is going to try to neutralize his liability on libya, which seems to have taken some toll on his commander in chief and on his leadership marks. but look, this is an area where the president has a natural advantage, and he needs to show that. in terms of the second term that you guys were talking about, i think what the president does is sort of the flip side of what romney did in the first debate. in the first debate, romney said i'm going to be bipartisan, just like in massachusetts. what -- and i'm going to work with the democrats. what obama has got to say is, republicans are going to work with me in a second term, because i've won. it's also a bipartisanship, it's cooperation, but from a different angle. >> hey, and chuck, curious about your take on the ohio poll, the quinnipiac poll. obviously, every poll is

different. but you suspect things are tightening up there in ohio right now. romney has cut the lead in half, according to the quinnipiac poll. does he have enough time to overtake him? >> you know what's interesting here about -- the two? when you talk to private pollsters on both sides of the aisle, there is some conformity to where florida is, where virginia is, frankly to, where nevada is. there is no conformity between the two parties on three states. ohio, iowa, wisconsin. they have -- both parties have two different views of what turnout is going to be in those states, and they have two different views of -- particularly in iowa and ohio, of the early vote. and i think that's the issue. how much of the early vote is -- is it overweighted in some of these polls, is it underweighted? i can tell you this. the obama folks believe they're ahead in ohio to the point that it's very hard for romney to catch up. the romney folks believe they've wiped away the advantages.

like i said, they're polling two different worlds. this is one state write feel like they think two different things in a way that you don't see in florida, virginia or colorado, for instance. >> chuck is absolutely right about the history, particularly in ohio. both parties agree, though, that springstein-bill clinton event the other day, they booked a lot of votes. they said "go vote" and a lot of people did. and banking those early votes with those big events is an advantage for the democrats, without a doubt. >> all right. >> chuck todd, thank you so much. we'll see you on "the daily rundown." john harwood, thank you, as well. >> thank you, john. >> eugene, you want to stay? >> he's a rock star. we need him here. he can help us paint some votes. >> here we go. i knew a dark cloud had come into the room. >> what? >> romney's senior policy adviser joins us on-set in boca. oh, he's talking to charlotte. don't you go there, dan.

no. she's for obama. >> no, she is an undecided florida voter. she has got an elephant. exactly. you've got to narrow your focus. let's send it up now to bill karins. a check of the forecast. bill, how does it look today? >> good monday morning, everyone. cute as a button right there. the forecast looks interesting as we go throughout week. we're starting out this morning with a big storm on the west coast. if you're joining from us california, the first big winter storm of the season, bringing snow northward, interstate 80 out of sacramento not a fun drive this morning. on and off rain. portland, seattle, medford, all the way down into san francisco. the rest of the country, warm as could be this weekend, continuing today with 80 around kansas city, chance of showers, and the east coast fantastic. here's where things get interesting towards the end of the week as we go into next week towards halloween. tropical storm sandy could be forming in the caribbean near jamai

jamaica, bringing a lost rain during the week. it's after that, we have a lot of questions. a big cold front, a big huge pool of cold air coming down the middle of the country on friday. but the east coast is going to stay kind of warm. there is a chance that if this storm system in the middle of the country stalls out enough that that -- what is sandy in the carribean could somehow get close to new england or the mid atlantic. about a week from today -- yes, when you think we're almost done, we're like the hurricane season, but we have to watch this closely. could be a little bit of a halloween surprise, possibly, for people in new england. well, we're talking florida, you're safe from the tropics. what a beautiful crowd. you're watching "morning joe," brewed by starbucks. [ male announcer ] humana and walmart have teamed up to bring you a low-priced

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welcome back to "morning joe." hold on. this is taking dan senor's time. >> one, two, three. oh, that's huge. thank you. >> foreign policy adviser to the bush administration, now an adviser to the obama campaign, dan senor, he's in there. >> he was actually trying to work the baby. >> who are you all for? obama? >> you can hear them. romney, romney. >> i think you can have a little trouble with the crowd out there. you want to go that way. >> no i just met a guy in there

whose t-shirt says i'm a republican because of mika. >> dan -- >> this guy named aaron. he says you radicalized him. he said he used to be centrist. >> i saw you working the 6-year-old. that's sad. she's all obama. >> she was talking about centrifuges. >> in florida, you know, we can get anybody to vote, okay? >> republicans are going to steal this election. a lot of 8-year-olds to vote. >> come on. pat buchanan won palm beach last time. >> exactly. >> so, dan, let's talk about tonight. obviously big foreign policy debate and a lot of questions, where is mitt romney going to be on a lot of different issues. let's start with iran, though. does mitt romney believe it's a good idea for us to have one-on-one talks with iran? >> his view is we need a diplomatic solution. that's his priority, his focus whether when dealing with iran. the range of tools in his tool kit to deal with iran diplomatically, and he's not going to rule any out.

>> so good idea. one-on-one talks? >> as he steps into the presidency, he's going to assess how sincere iran is about a diplomatic process, what kind of leverage we have. and he'll make a judgment about which approach makes sense. the shape of the table, whether it's multilateral or bilateral, those are things he has to assess as president. >> doesn't he have to be careful here? i mean, this could be a delicate and perhaps productive moment. perhaps not. in the relations -- relationship between the u.s. and iran. and in order for -- on the iranian nuclear program. doesn't romney have to walk very carefully in terms of what he says about -- >> well -- >> that's always the case. that's autlways the case. the iranian government and the administration both said this it "new york times" story is not accurate. so i'm not sure he has to respond to a story that both governments involved have said is not true. that said, if you listen to what he said, and he'll say it again tonight, we need diplomatic solution to the iranian nuclear crisis. it's gotten really bad. >> are you talk about --

>> iran is closer to a nuclear bomb today than it was four years ago. they become more brazen in their support of terrorism around the world. we need a tough negotiator who can sit down with iranians, put the pressure on them that's necessary to get this program shut down. >> so mika, let's get a shot quickly -- >> but -- >> eh -- >> let's take a picture -- i'm going to. look at dan in the middle of this terrible campaign. why does he look better now than he ever has? >> he looks adorable. seriously. >> no, don't go down there. he looks healthy. you're enjoying this, don't you? >> have i not looked healthy in the past? >> you have looked pretty bad. he's like clinton, he loves complaining. >> you're deflecting. >> i think he's juiced. human growth hormones. >> okay. so first of all, dan senor -- who are you talking about? i mean, i don't think you're talking about mitt romney. and the way he's discussed iran and the president's approach.

he has been extremely critical. and by the way, what are you saying that the president is not doing? >> okay. first of all, he has been critical of the following. when barack obama became president, iran had enough rich uranium to produce one bomb. today they have enough to produce five bombs. so the situation has gotten worse. that's a fair criticism. by the way, that's not just mitt romney, democrats and republicans in congress have made the same criticism, think tanks from across the political divide have made the same criticism. so the current policy is not working, in terms of slowing down iran's nuclear program. it's had effect on the economy, but it actually hasn't slowed down the pursuit of a nuclear weapon. >> dan, i'm looking around here and for some reason feeling like we are butch cassidy and the sun dance kid. i'm throwing it to one of the bolivian police officers. go ahead. >> i am enjoying the fact that dan is endorsing a diplomatic solution. >> peaceful. >> always been peaceful. >> hold on a second.

we let stephanie cutter talk. i held a baby while stephanie cutter -- >> i'm smart. >> if you let dan senor talk, i would appreciate it. john heilemann, go ahead. >> i was going to say, dan thinks that mitt romney feels -- that we should have a diplomatic solution. he acknowledges the sanctions have cut on iran in terms of their economy. it's now forcing iran to the table. it sounds to me like mitt romney is endorsing barack obama's approach to the iranian situation. and i'm glad to hear that. >> first of all, it's clear that the sanctions have had an impact on iran's economy. >> yes. >> it is not clear at all that it has changed iran's behavior. let me finish. are they coming to the table? >> apparently. >> the government of iran and the government of the united states have both said the story is false. >> i believe "the new york times." >> here is the point. iran's behavior, its pursuit of a nuclear weapon has not changed one eye otah. our allies to the gulf arab

nations, their leaders have said iran's behavior had not changed. had we had these sanctions in place a while ago, democrats pushing for these sanctions when president obama was fighting them every step of the way, they may have had an impact on their behavior. right now, they haven't. it's not to say we can't reach a diplomatic solution. but let's just be honest. the current process is worrisome, by every metric. iran's behavior is worse, not better. >> mike barnicle. >> dan, as one of two men who could become president of the united states, mitt romney has been given intelligence briefings. not the same briefings i would assume the president of the united states gets, but he has been given them. have you noticed any per acceptable change in his attitude toward any issue in the middle east or afghanistan as a result of these briefings? >> i honestly can't comment what he's learning in the briefings and how they have informed his thinking. i will say, he has always argued that the goal is a diplomatic solution, a peaceful resolution

of iran's nuclear program. in order to achieve that diplomatic resolution, iran has to believe that we are serious about economic pressure, we are serious about political and diplomatic pressure. meaning we have missed opportunities like the green revolution in 2009. and that the military threat, while we shouldn't use it, should be credible in the eyes of the iranians. president obama has done some of these things right. the problem is, he hasn't done all of them right. so the ayatollahs in iran have seen washington sending mixed messages. >> you think the green revolution would have toppled. >> we don't know, do we? >> you don't think it would have toppled the regime, how do you think it would have influenced -- >> i don't know. we think the iranian regime has to make the decision that they are under so much pressure that they have to come to the table. now what kind of pressure? economic pressure, domestic and political pressure. so had the green revolution gotten legs, it would have ap y

applied substantial pressure on the regime. we sent a message, we're not interested -- >> iran is a special case in that these nationalistic feelings that always arise when the united states intervenes on a country, and that, in fact, we're down to the benefit of the local -- that doesn't apply in -- >> let me answer that question for myself. and i think for a lot of americans who saw in 2009 the president had a historic opportunity, the first time since 1979, that we could have seen regime change in iran. the president stood on the sidelines for too long. this is the same president who just one year before, gene, said if only george w. bush would sit down and talk to them, why, we would have sunshine and lightness coming out of -- the country that's been the epicenter of terrorism since 1979. the president had an opportunity in '79, he missed it. that was a historical miss. >> as a former foreign editor, i

doubt the green revolution was going to topple the regime. >> are we going to play that game? >> former member of the armed services committee, the united states house of representatives. no. i will tell you this. even going back to 1993, as i was -- i was talking to people in washington and talking to admirals and generals, even in 1993. i said what's the number one issue. they said it's iran. we have got to figure out a way to get that regime out. you fast forward to 2009, i don't know if it would have toppled the regime, but i'll tell you what. we would have had more of an impact. really put more pressure on them. >> another question. the president chose not to weigh in on behalf of dissidents with the theory you just articulated, with a way in that would strengthen the regime. and the regime would argue, the americans are meddling. they argued that anyway. and ahmadinejad were still accusing us of weighing in. we got nothing out of it. let down the dissident movement.

>> it's how pupil people receive that. >> can i -- >> the american president -- >> you made the baby cry. >> hold on. can i just say, we basically rolled out a birthday cake for stephanie cutter. poor dan is leaving with like his clothes shredded. >> excuse me. i brought a baby, and you made it cry. so i can't help you. >> let's stop for one second, and let's just talk like dan senor is not here. okay? >> no. >> i think we have seen, actually, sort of -- it's news. that mitt romney is talking about diplomacy in iran and talking about these "new york times" reports as possibly being positive news stepping forward. i think that's more of a realist approach. >> i agree with that. >> i think he's realized -- >> i agree. i think it's a -- a little bit of a shift -- >> hold on -- >> he has always said, the military option should be -- look, over and over and over, the military option should be the option of last resort.

and diplomacy -- iranians to think we are serious to get a deal. we need them to think we're not sending mixed messages on economic pressure, political pressure, and the military threat must be credible. that's the way you get them to focus on a peaceful deal. he has always said that. >> but dan, if mitt romney goes to israel and shows up in it israel with aides and talking mostly about the military solution, the tone and emphasis is different. i mean, yes, of course, he's always said last resort. everyone says the military option should be the last resort. but if you're talking mostly about military and doing it in israel, people are going to get the impression you're more bellicose than the need for talks, right? >> i think this is like splitting hair. the relate is -- the governor laid out a strategy, has been laying out this strategy for years, 2007, look at the speech he gave in 2007 at the conference in israel. the same way he talks about israel and iran and the issues in the region today. >> mike barnicle. >> we were talking during the break. a young man, shane wilson, 20 years of age, small town in

idaho, 101st airborne, killed in afghanistan this past weekend. he was 12 years of age when this war began. there is a process implemented now for troop withdrawal from afghanistan. what are governor romney's views on the pace of the acceleration and does he have any plans to change it, to keep more troops there longer or bring them home quicker? >> let me say, this is extremely important. governor romney knows many families who have been directly affected by this war and the iraq war. he himself has 18 grandchildren. he's obviously very worried about the future of these wars and how long they go on and how they affect our country and our young people. he supports the 2014 transition. he has been very clear about that. he stood with president obama on that. he's had some criticisms along the way in terms of negotiations with the taliban, the -- withdrawal of troops during the fighting season on the surge. but on the 2014 transition, he said we need to get our troops home as safely and responsibly

as possible in 2014. and i don't think there's real daylight between governor romney and president obama on that particular issue. >> as far as bringing the troops home. >> 2014. >> all right. very good. >> good to be with you guys. >> glad you were here, man. >> seriously? >> you need to meet aaron. aaron has this shirt. he wrote, "i'm a republican because of mika." >> really? >> really radicalized. >> you brought a sharpie with you, did you? >> no, it's legit. >> i'll find him. >> thank you so much, dan. say hi. >> i'm mitt romney, i'm running in the middle. >> raising to the middle. how fast can i get to the middle tonight? >> what have you been snorting? when we come back, we've got the man who brought the debate to boca. >> and charlotte. >> the president of lind university, dr. kevin joins us next on "morning joe."

up next, the president of lind university, the host of

tonight's presidential debate, dr. kevin ross. keep it here on "morning joe," live, from boca raton, florida. americans are always ready to work hard for a better future. since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894, they've been committed to putting clients first. helping generations through tough times. good times. never taking a bailout.

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♪ welcome back to "morning joe." 44 past the hour. boy, it is still hopping here. joining us now, the president of lind university, dr. kevin ross. dr. ross is the man responsible for bringing the final debate to boca, and to lind. welcome. >> thank you very much, great to be here. >> congratulations. i think. >> oh, absolutely. i won't take all the credit, though. it's a team sport. >> how did it happen? of all the places, how did you make it happen here? >> we've had a lot of confidence

in the university for a long time and built a new performing arts center in 2010, and our chief of staff attended ole miss and knew what that debate that did for that institution. we ended up landing the last one. >> out-of-pocket expenses to stage this, what do you get back short and long-term? >> it's a $5 million venture for us, we have raised half that. we have created 80 courses, i've never seen anything like this. and boca raton is excited about its, as you can see. >> unbelievable. >> is it a recruiting tool for new students and how much does the alumni love it? >> alumni is thrilled, official watch parties over the globe, lynn has 40 states in campus in 2000. we know this will tell our story further and that's what we wanted to do. it? >> stays with you.

it is living history that stays with you, i was at ole miss a couple weeks ago. and you look at the place where the mccain-obama debate was, the historic marker. again, that's something that students see all the time. this stays with you long after the crowds leave. >> absolutely. we couldn't be more pleased. a perfect storm, our 50th anniversary, foreign policy debate, final one, we couldn't be more thrilled. >> so how does it break down on campus? >> yes. >> the red, the blue, is there purp purple? >> my green tie today, i want to stay right in the middle. >> are the students lining up and picking their sides going into this thing, or is it absorbing all of it, glad to be a part of it? >> i think it's definitely the latter. but the international students are fascinated, because some don't have democracies so they have this front seat. and some yesterday got tickets to go to the debate. the first student chosen was from austria. >> let's talk about this debate and what it means for this

election. we didn't know. there is debate -- whether the first debate would have any impact at all. obviously, it's going to be the centerpiece of your book, probably, when you write it, about how that changed everything. we thought the second debate was going to be huge, a push. how significant is tonight's debate? >> i think barring a huge error by either one -- neither of the first two debates had a moment that was singled out as the moment. that could make a difference. otherwise, i think for the president, he wants to reassert what was a big advantage on foreign policy as commander in chief. we talked earlier about the fact he's got an advantage, he is commander in chief. on the other hand, i think governor romney has succeeded in both debates by standing toe-to-toe with the president. if he comes out tonight where people with see him as a plausible commander in chief, making big national security decisions, i think that will help reassure some undecided voters. >> and we've been talking around this a little bit and it's kind of the point that we're making with dan senor before. he needs to -- the plausible alternative thing.

in this case, a safe pair of hands, not risky, not bellicose. not going to get into a bunch of foreign entanglements. there is neo con-ish talk. he wants to come across not threatening and if he can do that, he'll achieve a lot. >> you watch tonight, he's going to move to the center? >> that's what i mean. >> and you're also going to see him agreeing with the president a good bit. >> it's all how much he and barack obama agree on everything tonight. >> and by the way, agreeing with barack obama is actually a positive for mitt romney, because it makes him look more presidential. >> every time he does, and he alters tonely or substantively, he's taking a pass, the democrats will scream. i'm not sure how that will break through. >> if he looks like a commander in chief, calm and steady, i think reagan proved himself to be in the 1980 debate a huge difference. let's talk about the security on campus. it's got to be something the likes of which you and your students have never seen. >> absolutely. i live next door to the university and it took me 20

minutes to get in there this morning. friendly dogs and magazined and everything else. so it's -- the price of what we're doing. it's very important. and everyone has been remarkable as partners from the commission on debates to secret service. it's been a real pleasure, which is -- people i don't think would think that. >> how exciting. congratulations. >> thanks very much. >> a big night tonight, mika. >> barnicle is with alex's grandmother. that's all i have to say. >> the debate tonight, bob schieffer there with the two presidential candidates and history will turn on what happens tonight. >> that's going to be interesting with schieffer in the eye of the storm. for sure. dr. kevin ross, thank you so much. >> thank you. >> president of lynn university. good luck tonight. we'll be right back with much more on "morning joe." ♪

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♪ ♪ try to see things my way welcome back to "morning joe." it is so good to have you here today. what a crowd. you guys have been amazing this morning. thank you so much. it's time to talk about what we have learned today. mike barnicle what have you learned? >> i learned why i love to come to florida. it's the only place in this country where you can go and order a drink and they card me. >> i love it. >> i learned this crowd is in heavy competition with the best crowds ever when this show goes on the road. >> mark, you're exactly right. david -- i mean, they came out at 2:30 this morning, mika. unbelievable. what did you learn? >> i metal election's grandmother today, and realized why he is such a nice person. she is perfect. and also, the sleeping romney supporter, charlotte. there you see video of her. we're going to put it up. she woke up, and she is now for obama. >> oh, whatever. >> what did you learn, john? >> i learned this crowd is not just great, but they have embraced a philosophy i endorse wholeheartedly. they love the show, but they don't like you.

>> exactly. and this gentleman -- where are you, right there, you're proud of yourself, aren't you? he goes, i love the show, joe! i don't like you, though. very good -- yeah. he says it when the camera is on him, but when no one is looking. i heard that character is what you do when nobody is looking. when nobody is looking you said you didn't like me. what did you learn? >> i learned that 2,000 students with a debate on foreign policy, all come to this election. >> all right. very good. thank you guys, again, for being with us! we greatly appreciate it. have a great tonight -- debate tonight. and we will see you tomorrow morning. if it's way too early, what time is it? >> it's "morning joe." but now get ready for chuck todd and "the daily rundown." >> all right. very good. ♪